Is There a Seasonal Pattern to RFP Volume?

Yes, and it is far more dramatic than most teams expect. We analyzed weekly RFP posting volumes across 7,569 listings from October 2025 through February 2026 and found a clear, predictable seasonal cycle. Normal December weekly volume averaged 527 RFPs per week. During Christmas week (the last week of December), that number crashed to just 97, an 82% drop. New Year's week recovered slightly to 148. Then the first full week of January surged to 565 listings, a 5.8x rebound from the holiday low.

This pattern is not surprising in principle, as procurement teams take holidays like everyone else, but the magnitude is worth understanding. An 82% volume drop followed by a 5.8x recovery creates a predictable wave that smart proposal teams can exploit. The teams that use the quiet period to build their pipeline infrastructure are the ones that capture disproportionate share when January volume floods the market.

What Drives the January Surge?

Three structural factors converge in January. First, many organizations operate on calendar-year budgets that reset on January 1. New budget allocations trigger new procurement cycles, and the RFPs associated with those budgets begin appearing in the first two weeks of January. Second, there is a backlog effect. Opportunities that would have been posted in late December are held until January when procurement offices reopen and staffing returns to normal levels. Third, Q1 planning timelines mean that many organizations need to have vendors selected by the end of March, so solicitations must go out by early-to-mid January to meet evaluation and award timelines.

The data supports all three factors. January 2026 was the highest-volume month in our dataset at 2,297 total RFPs, compared to 1,970 in December and 1,509 in November. The monthly acceleration from October (528) through January represents a 4.4x growth curve that only partially reflects seasonal patterns. Even accounting for improvements in data coverage, the January spike is the most consistent and pronounced seasonal signal in the data.

How Should Proposal Teams Plan Around This Cycle?

The holiday-to-January cycle creates three distinct planning windows, each with different strategic priorities. During the pre-holiday period (early to mid-December), volume is high and competition is normal. This is the time to close out active proposals and identify which January opportunities you want to target. During the quiet period (late December through early January), volume is minimal. This window is ideal for library maintenance, template updates, and training. Teams that use this downtime to clean and expand their answer library enter January with a significant readiness advantage.

During the January surge (mid-January through February), volume peaks and competition intensifies. This is execution mode. Teams that prepared in December can focus on response quality rather than scrambling to build infrastructure. The numbers show that weekly posting rates in late January and early February 2026 consistently exceeded 600 RFPs per week, meaning proposal teams were facing 120 or more new opportunities every business day. Without automated discovery and AI-assisted drafting, no team can effectively triage that volume.

Does the Holiday Dip Affect All Categories Equally?

The seasonal pattern is most pronounced in Software and IT categories, which are more likely to follow calendar-year budget cycles. Construction RFPs, which often follow project-based timelines tied to spring and summer building seasons, show a more gradual increase from November through January without the sharp holiday dip. Marketing and Event Services RFPs also spike in January, likely driven by organizations planning annual campaigns and events for the year ahead.

Federal procurement follows its own calendar. The federal fiscal year ends September 30, which creates a separate end-of-year spending surge in August and September that is not fully captured in our October-to-February dataset. However, federal agencies do participate in the January surge, as many individual programs receive new-year funding allocations that trigger fresh procurement cycles. The combination of federal and private-sector budget resets makes January the most target-rich environment for proposal teams operating across both markets.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the best time to prepare for RFP season?

The optimal preparation window is the two weeks surrounding Christmas and New Year's, when RFP posting volume drops 82% from normal levels. Use this quiet period to update your answer library, review and refresh templates, train team members on tools, and pre-qualify your target opportunity list for January. Teams that invest in preparation during this window consistently outperform those that start from scratch when volume surges in January.

How much does RFP volume increase in January?

In our dataset, weekly volume increased from 97 RFPs during Christmas week to 565 in the first full week of January 2026, a 5.8x rebound. January 2026 was the highest-volume month at 2,297 total listings, representing a 4.4x increase over October 2025 (528 listings). The surge continues into February, with weekly volumes exceeding 630 listings.

Do federal RFPs follow the same seasonal pattern?

Federal procurement follows both the calendar-year pattern (January surge) and the federal fiscal year pattern (September-October surge around the September 30 fiscal year-end). Federal agencies participate in the January surge as individual programs receive new-year allocations, but the most intense federal procurement period is typically July through September when agencies rush to obligate remaining annual funds.